I, Cringely . The Pulpit | PBS
There is no joy at Yahoo, for mighty Jerry has struck out. This week Yahoo cofounder Jerry Yang announced he was stepping down after 17 turbulent months as CEO of the big Internet portal -- a time in which the company rebuffed a buyout offer from Microsoft, flubbed an ad sales agreement with Google, and ended up being worth a third of its former self when the rest of the market is down only 40 percent. Jerry blew it. And rare in the annals of public companies, JERRY blew it, nobody else. There is no blame to be shared because the Chief Yahoo took his anti-Microsoft stand pretty much single-handed, having bounced Terry Semel from the job in June 2007. Semel, who was more Hollywood than Silicon Valley and never well suited for the job anyway, had backed the Microsoft deal. Freed from his duties at Yahoo, Semel also voted with his brokerage account, selling a large number of company shares while the selling was good. If there is a lesson to be learned here it is not so much that Jerry was wrong, but that Jerry was Jerry and that wasn't the right thing for Yahoo shareholders. There are three seminal ideas that guided Jerry Yang, who is, after all, a diverted graduate student who got on-the-job training in business. To understand these three ideas is to understand Yahoo under Yang: 1) Microsoft is evil. Yang came of age in the Netscape era and saw Microsoft break the law to destroy that company and try to control the Internet. Whatever its motivation, Microsoft did all the bad things they were accused of and more and Yang could never forget or forgive that, even at the cost of his own company. He took it personally. 2) The power of "no." There was a time in the 1990s when venture capitalists Kleiner Perkins and Sequoia Capital were trying to get Excite and Yahoo -- their respective portals -- to merge in a forced marriage designed to benefit only the VCs. It didn't feel right to Jerry, who put his foot down and scotched the deal. It worked that time, so saying "no" became for Yang the default position, especially after Broadcast.com. 3) Don't get screwed. When Yahoo bought Broadcast.com for $4.7 billion and it became clear that Yang & Co. got almost nothing of value for their money, they resolved never to get screwed on another deal again. That was the moment Yahoo embraced bureaucracy. They never made a quick decision again and in many cases hardly made any decisions at all. Mix these three concepts together, add independent wealth and a personal golf course, and you get the Jerry Yang of today. He was inclined to say "no," couldn't embrace Microsoft's evil, and sure as heck wasn't going to be screwed by Redmond, which he knew could never be trusted. As long as Jerry was in command the deal would never happen -- and didn't. Given all this it's a wonder Yang can remain with the company as he says he will. I couldn't do it. He must feel like Ralph Nader. Or maybe that's exactly it; Jerry Yang, like Nader, still doesn't get it. The best thing Yang could have done for Yahoo shareholders was to sell the company to Microsoft. He chose, instead, to do what he thought was best for the Yahoo COMPANY, which is weird given that it no longer feels anything like it did back in those glory days. He threw away $20+ billion just to preserve a memory. Comcast's Cap Hey, I have been thinking about Comcast's new 250-gigabyte monthly download cap and what to do about it. Comcast, of course, is just trying to keep its top 2-3 percent of P2P gonzos from ruining things for the rest of us. If a tiny minority of users are taking half the available bandwidth, well they have to be somehow crushed (that's the theory). Comcast first tried slowing down the miscreants, you'll remember, denied the company was doing that, then got busted by the AP of all outfits. So now they'll try this new cap. As a guy who sees a GRAND PLAN nearly everywhere, of course I see one here. Comcast says the new cap will affect less than 5 percent of its users, but that's now. What happens in five years as connections get faster and faster, Internet movie and video distribution explodes and the cap doesn't rise comparably? Remember wholesale bandwidth costs are dropping by 50 percent per year and have been for the last decade, so Comcast's costs get cheaper and cheaper while at the same time more and more users will impinge on the bandwidth cap. If 5 percent are in violation today, that will be 10 percent a year from now, 20 percent two years from now and 40 percent three years from now, unless Comcast raises the cap. I think they won't raise the cap but will rather introduce paid bandwidth as an alternative tier and get us to start paying a la carte for those parts of our Internet experience that Comcast might presently view as under-compensated entertainment products. It's just a way for Comcast to benefit financially from third-party and user-generated content. So maybe a little civil disobedience is in order. That 250 gig bandwidth cap, while more than 95 percent of current users require, only comes down to 3-4 days of wide open bit-pumping on a cable modem. Why not build a utility that takes all participating users to 249 gigs per month? Even a 5 percent participation rate among Comcast users would take the network to its knees and possibly force a more respectful attitude from the cable company. But hey, it's just an idea. Cringely's Future Finally, readers have been asking what I'll be doing after this gig ends on December 15th. Frankly, I have no idea, but as a guy with kids ages six, four, and two, I can assure you I'm not retiring. Guys like me don't retire, we just get lots of life insurance and work until we die. It might not make sense to hurl myself unemployed into the worst financial crisis in 80 years, but sometimes a guy just has to do what a guy has to do. Besides, as someone who has been fired from EVERY JOB I'VE EVER HELD, this might be my last and only chance to actually quit something. I'll land somewhere, you can be sure, probably with NerdTV and my Moon shot in tow. And I'm open to ideas. Just nothing very illegal, okay? read less
Tue November 18 2008
There is no joy at Yahoo, for mighty Jerry has struck out. This week Yahoo cofounder Jerry Yang announced he was stepping down after 17 turbulent months as CEO of the big Internet portal -- a time in which the company rebuffed a buyout offer from Microsoft, flubbed an ad sales agreement with Google, and ended up being worth a third of its former self when the rest of the market is down only 40 percent. Jerry blew it. And rare in the annals of public companies, JERRY blew it, nobody else. There is no blame to be shared because the Chief Yahoo took his anti-Microsoft stand pretty much single-handed, having bounced Terry Semel from the job in June 2007. Semel, who was more Hollywood than Silicon Valley and never well suited for the job anyway, had backed the Microsoft deal. Freed from his duties at Yahoo, Semel also voted with his brokerage account, selling a large number of company shares while the selling was good. If there is a lesson to be learned here it is not so much that Jerry was wrong, but that Jerry was Jerry and that wasn't the right thing for Yahoo shareholders. There are three seminal ideas that guided Jerry Yang, who is, after all, a diverted graduate student who got on-the-job training in business. To understand these three ideas is to understand Yahoo under Yang: 1) Microsoft is evil. Yang came of age in the Netscape era and saw Microsoft break the law to destroy that company and try to control the Internet. Whatever its motivation, Microsoft did all the bad things they were accused of and more and Yang could never forget or forgive that, even at the cost of his own company. He took it personally. 2) The power of "no." There was a time in the 1990s when venture capitalists Kleiner Perkins and Sequoia Capital were trying to get Excite and Yahoo -- their respective portals -- to merge in a forced marriage designed to benefit only the VCs. It didn't feel right to Jerry, who put his foot down and scotched the deal. It worked that time, so saying "no" became for Yang the default position, especially after Broadcast.com. 3) Don't get screwed. When Yahoo bought Broadcast.com for $4.7 billion and it became clear that Yang & Co. got almost nothing of value for their money, they resolved never to get screwed on another deal again. That was the moment Yahoo embraced bureaucracy. They never made a quick decision again and in many cases hardly made any decisions at all. Mix these three concepts together, add independent wealth and a personal golf course, and you get the Jerry Yang of today. He was inclined to say "no," couldn't embrace Microsoft's evil, and sure as heck wasn't going to be screwed by Redmond, which he knew could never be trusted. As long as Jerry was in command the deal would never happen -- and didn't. Given all this it's a wonder Yang can remain with the company as he says he will. I couldn't do it. He must feel like Ralph Nader. Or maybe that's exactly it; Jerry Yang, like Nader, still doesn't get it. The best thing Yang could have done for Yahoo shareholders was to sell the company to Microsoft. He chose, instead, to do what he thought was best for the Yahoo COMPANY, which is weird given that it no longer feels anything like it did back in those glory days. He threw away $20+ billion just to preserve a memory. Comcast's Cap Hey, I have been thinking about Comcast's new 250-gigabyte monthly download cap and what to do about it. Comcast, of course, is just trying to keep its top 2-3 percent of P2P gonzos from ruining things for the rest of us. If a tiny minority of users are taking half the available bandwidth, well they have to be somehow crushed (that's the theory). Comcast first tried slowing down the miscreants, you'll remember, denied the company was doing that, then got busted by the AP of all outfits. So now they'll try this new cap. As a guy who sees a GRAND PLAN nearly everywhere, of course I see one here. Comcast says the new cap will affect less than 5 percent of its users, but that's now. What happens in five years as connections get faster and faster, Internet movie and video distribution explodes and the cap doesn't rise comparably? Remember wholesale bandwidth costs are dropping by 50 percent per year and have been for the last decade, so Comcast's costs get cheaper and cheaper while at the same time more and more users will impinge on the bandwidth cap. If 5 percent are in violation today, that will be 10 percent a year from now, 20 percent two years from now and 40 percent three years from now, unless Comcast raises the cap. I think they won't raise the cap but will rather introduce paid bandwidth as an alternative tier and get us to start paying a la carte for those parts of our Internet experience that Comcast might presently view as under-compensated entertainment products. It's just a way for Comcast to benefit financially from third-party and user-generated content. So maybe a little civil disobedience is in order. That 250 gig bandwidth cap, while more than 95 percent of current users require, only comes down to 3-4 days of wide open bit-pumping on a cable modem. Why not build a utility that takes all participating users to 249 gigs per month? Even a 5 percent participation rate among Comcast users would take the network to its knees and possibly force a more respectful attitude from the cable company. But hey, it's just an idea. Cringely's Future Finally, readers have been asking what I'll be doing after this gig ends on December 15th. Frankly, I have no idea, but as a guy with kids ages six, four, and two, I can assure you I'm not retiring. Guys like me don't retire, we just get lots of life insurance and work until we die. It might not make sense to hurl myself unemployed into the worst financial crisis in 80 years, but sometimes a guy just has to do what a guy has to do. Besides, as someone who has been fired from EVERY JOB I'VE EVER HELD, this might be my last and only chance to actually quit something. I'll land somewhere, you can be sure, probably with NerdTV and my Moon shot in tow. And I'm open to ideas. Just nothing very illegal, okay? read less
Fri November 14 2008
President-Elect Barack Obama has announced that when he's in office he'll appoint a Chief Technology Officer (CTO) for the whole darned USA. Though Google CEO Eric Schmidt already said he isn't interested in the job, I am. I accept, Mr. President. And while the idea of Cringely for CTO may seem lame to most everybody I know (including my Mom), I think I can make a strong case for why I am EXACTLY the right guy for the job. For one thing, unlike Eric Schmidt I don't have a lot of money. Schmidt can't afford to take the job because Google stock is down and he'd lose a fortune. Not so for me. I come encumbered only with debts, which is to say I am a true American. I'd be perfectly willing to put those debts in a blind trust ASAP. The U.S. CTO would have to be a dynamic leader capable of speaking his or her mind and holding his or her own against a tide of critics and special interests. Hey, that's what I do every week (sometimes twice)! Maintaining and defending technology opinions is my only business and some people think I do it too well, which I take as a compliment. Now we need to consider why President-Elect Obama thinks the country needs a CTO in the first place. The President has long had a Science Adviser, so why appoint a CTO? It's the distinction between adviser and officer that I'd say is the whole point; one simply advises while the other implements and leads directly. And I think there is plenty of room for new leadership in this area. America has always been tops in science, tops in research and development, tops in medicine, tops in industrial development, tops in technical infrastructure -- tops, tops, tops. But are we tops today? I don't think so, and I'd say we've been slipping steadily for the last eight years and probably for many years before that. The rest of the world has caught up and some other countries now lead the U.S. in many respects. Yes, we have technical traditions and deep institutions, but those traditions are weaker than they were and the institutions are, too. I think something can be done about that. My belief that something CAN be done is critical, because most of the usual suspects for this job probably think it can't. The reason I am so optimistic is because of the very financial disaster that is the current U.S. economy. Things are so bad right now that I am greatly encouraged. Huh? Sometime in February the new Obama Administration is likely to propose the mother of all economic stimulus packages. It won't be a $650 check that comes in the mail. It won't be a $700 billion equity injection in various financial institutions. It WILL be a public spending plan modeled after the New Deal of the 1930s, injecting $600+ billion primarily into infrastructure construction and reconstruction. The difference between this New New Deal and the first one is that while plenty of roads and bridges will be rebuilt, a lot of the money this time will probably go into information infrastructure. Well that's my bag. The U.S. CTO - at least this FIRST U.S. CTO - will be the buyer-of-cool-stuff-in-chief for the entire nation. I would make a better buyer-in-chief than almost anyone else because of two important characteristics in my warped personality: 1) I would be immune to special interest groups so this wouldn't turn into another National Information Infrastructure boondoggle, and; 2) yet as a true enthusiast I would buy with such reckless abandon that I'd easily fulfill the economic stimulus needs while spewing money widely enough to guarantee at least a few good technical investments for the nation. This latter point probably requires some explanation. As we can see from the current $700 billion bank bailout, the ranks of those actually benefitting are pretty small. We're $325 billion into the thing and consumers - the people paying for it -- have yet to benefit at all as far as I can tell. Most banks haven't even benefitted. And those that have benefitted have done little to share their wealth. To put things in the most positive light I can, let's attribute this to the very surgical nature of this process. To put it more honestly, nothing really changes except the rich get richer. Look at Al Gore's National Information Infrastructure program of the 1990s, which was intended to build for us all exactly the sort of data network enjoyed today by people in Japan and Korea. $200 billion in tax credits were distributed, primarily to telephone companies. That's $200 billion in government revenue foregone, which is just the same, it seems to me, as writing a check. And what did we get for it? Limited Internet service in schools and no Internet service in homes. The DSL we have today we paid for, believe me - phone companies sell that stuff at a profit. However well intentioned Al was, his system was gamed by the phone companies who took the money and ran. That can't happen again. If we are going to have a huge economic stimulus package that we'll pay-off as a people over the next 30+ years, I say we should get something for it. If we hire as CTO some slick-talker from IBM or GE this won't happen. If we hire Bill Joy it won't happen, either. Bill's too smart and too gentle and too darned rich for the job. We need someone with just enough savvy to know good technology, enough independence to make the right decisions, and crazy enough to do it all 24/7 right out in public so that vaunted "transparency" we keep talking about yet never see can be proved to be more than just a modern myth. I'm the man for that job. AND I can use the work. That's because December 15th will mark my last column for PBS. After 11 years and more than 600 columns I'll be moving-on, perhaps into that big CTO job in Washington, but then maybe not. This is my decision, not that of PBS, which has been nothing but good to me these many years. In the month I have left I will be filing many columns, trying in a breathless rush to put a cap on this part of my career and leave behind a few ideas of how things should be and where they can go if done right. Though it will be a couple weeks early, the last column will be my predictions for 2009. Stick around until then. I'm right most of the time, you know. read less
Fri November 07 2008
Steve Jobs is not like you and me. He has millions of customers, 32,000 employees, and a board of directors who think he can do no wrong. Running a company that is immensely profitable, gaining in market share, has no debt and $20 billion in cash, he can afford to make bold moves, the most recent of which is his decision to replace Tony Fadell, until moments ago head of the division that produces Apple’s iPod. Like everything Jobsian, Fadell’s departure is part of an Apple GRAND PLAN. The variables at work here are (in no particular order) ego, competitive advantage, ego, management technique, ego, strategic thinking, and ego. To say that Steve Jobs’ ego can expand to fill any known space might be an understatement but I’ll stand by it anyway. Fadell’s failing in this regard is his being hailed as the “father of the iPod.” What does that make Jobs? Who made THE BIG DECISION? Who committed the company? Who – most importantly of all – seduced all the record companies? That last guy would be James Higa, but since I don’t want to get HIM fired, too, let’s just attribute it all to Steve Jobs – for all intents and purposes the REAL father of the iPod. All hail Steve. Apple exists solely as an extension of Steve Jobs. Remember that. Anything attributable to Apple is really attributable to Jobs. Other people work at Apple, of course, and excel at their positions, but that is primarily because they were chosen, anointed, or inspired by Jobs. Not that Jobs doesn’t make the occasional mistake. Look at the Mac Cube, for example. But that was our mistake as consumers, not realizing that it really ought to have been worth an extra $500 to us to have a computer with no cooling fan. Steve Jobs makes very few such mistakes, in fact. That, and his total domination of Apple at every level allow the company to be literally the only PC vendor to have anything like a strategic plan. Dell and HP have the odd strategic initiative, like getting into or out of media players or TVs, but the idea of a comprehensive corporate strategy, well that’s too much to expect from companies that are managed, not led. Steve Jobs is a leader 100 percent in the mold of General George S. Patton. Rent the movie and it will start to make sense. Heck, rent it on iTunes. So here’s what’s going on with Tony Fadell. First, he was vulnerable as a charismatic leader in his own right who has been talked about in the press as a possible heir to Jobs. That alone meant he had to die, but it wasn’t enough to mean that he had to die just now. That decision required an external variable in the form of former IBM executive Mark Papermaster. Steve Jobs wants to give Tony Fadell’s job to Papermaster. It’s not that Papermaster would be any better at the job than Fadell, but there are two over-riding factors here: 1) Jobs can only have so many direct reports, and; 2) he thinks putting Papermaster in Fadell’s job is the best way to get past any legal objections from Papermaster’s former employer, IBM. Papermaster most recently ran IBM’s blade server division and in the mind of Steve Jobs blade servers and iPods couldn’t be farther apart. One is an enterprise sale while the other is consumer. One is a clear IT sale and the other has nothing to do with IT, really, since iPods and iPhones aren’t aren’t computers or computer peripherals. Jobs thinks Apple can make this point stick with a judge and he might well be correct. Papermaster has to be gone from IBM for a year before he can take a job that clearly competes with his last position at IBM. But Jobs doesn’t want Papermaster for blade servers, nor does he even want him for iPods. Jobs wants Papermaster for the expertise he showed two jobs ago at IBM running Big Blue’s PowerPC operation. Jobs wants Papermaster to lead Apple’s PA Semi acquisition and create a new family of scalable processors optimized for Snow Leopard and beyond. Having Papermaster run iPod hardware is a placeholder to let him get used to Apple and get ready to take over the Apple processor job, some of which will be used in iPods and iPhones, so the job isn’t a total waste. But for the few months he’ll be running iPod hardware, Papermaster will mainly be overseeing the implementation of Fadell’s strategy. If that seems like a game of musical chairs in the Cupertino executive suite, well it is. It’s also a game we’ve seen played over and over again. Back to point 1 from five paragraphs ago: Jobs can have only so many direct reports. Steve Jobs believes the key to his success is in finding, hiring, retaining, then firing the best talent in the world. He would maintain in the very moment he’s firing Fadell that Tony is better at his job than anyone else on Earth. Yet still Fadell must go and that’s because – ego issues aside – Jobs had to make room in his inner circle for Papermaster. Everyone close to Jobs is under continual analysis: is this person really (or still) the best in the world? If they aren’t, or if someone else is just as good but more important for some additional reason, then the incumbent has to go. Steve Jobs ultimately betrays all of his direct reports in this manner. It’s just the way he is. And if it costs Apple a few million to remove one extra head from the room, well that’s okay with a board that KNOWS (as we all do, to put it fairly) that Jobs really is the secret of Apple’s success. His system may be brutal, but it works. So Fadell was already in danger because he had become known as an individual. Remember that when PortalPlayer (now part of nVidia) was making the guts of every iPod the company was forbidden by Apple to acknowledge that. Even in its financial reports PortalPlayer was forbidden to use the “A” word and simply had to attribute to some unnamed company 85 percent of PortalPlayer’s revenue. Just as Jobs was scourging Fadell, though, he was seducing Papermaster. Jobs can be VERY seductive. And he was hardly going to seduce the IBM executive with a promise to put him two levels down. So as the most vulnerable person in Jobs’ inner circle, Fadell had to go. That Fadell’s wife was head of Human Resources for Apple and was forced, essentially, to terminate her own husband, well that was just gravy and yet another reason for Apple employees to take the stairs rather than risk sharing an elevator with Jobs. Fear can be a remarkable motivator. Don’t feel bad for Fadell, though. His $8+ million golden parachute stock grant is coming at a time when Apple shares are depressed and could easily double by the time he can sell them in 2010. He get’s $300,000 per year to “advise” Jobs (I’d like one of those jobs, too, Steve) and then there’s his wife’s departure package, which hasn’t been mentioned. Clearly out of the picture as an heir to Jobs, Fadell will next appear in 2010 as a CEO somewhere in the South Bay. Of course IBM with its largest corporate legal department on earth has filed suit against Apple, trying to block Papermaster from taking the Apple position. Apple’s legal department is fairly accomplished, too, and Cupertino is a much stronger company than Armonk, which will lead to the ultimate solution to this legal problem. Apple still hopes to convince a judge that it is correct about Papermaster. But if Apple fails in that, Steve Jobs will just pick up the phone and choose IBM Microelectronics as the fab to build the next generation of Apple’s PowerPC processors – a contract worth billions, but ONLY if IBM drops all legal action. Apple will win in the end -- I guarantee it. And the way Jobs negotiates, Big Blue will probably end up losing money on the chip deal, too. read less
Thu October 30 2008
It isn't very often I get to apply Moore's Law to a non-Information Technology business and rarer still that I can then relate the whole thing back to Microsoft, so I'm going for it. Here's what the solar power industry can teach us about Microsoft: The wonderful thing about Moore's Law is what the lady at the bank called the "miracle of compound interest." That halving of manufacturing cost every 18 months (the OTHER way of looking at Moore's Law that we generally don't use) has little apparent impact in the first few years, but eventually the halving and re-halving takes a real bite out of the cost side until substantial performance is very, very cheap. That explains why there is more computing power -- a LOT more -- in your iPod than was required for the Apollo Moon missions. Well this applies to ALL silicon-substrate photolithography applications, not just computer chips. It applies equally well, for example, to silicon solar cells. There are many types of solar cells. Some solar cells involve crystalline silicon just like computer chips and others use amorphous silicon, but all types benefit from Moore's Law. In fact one especially good aspect of solar cells is that they can make use of older process technologies that are obsolete for computer work. So every time Intel or AMD builds a new fab there is a market in the solar industry for their old machines. Look at those round solar cells used in many arrays today and you'll notice the smaller wafer sizes favored in Silicon Valley 15-20 years ago. That's no coincidence. The result of this relentless application of Moore's Law to the solar industry is that we can see a time in that near future when the cost of producing a watt of electricity from a solar cell on your roof will be approximately the same as the cost of delivering that same watt over a power line from an electric utility. And of course that means that 18 months after that point the solar watt will cost HALF of what the same power would cost from the electric company, which will completely change the game. The time when that electricity cost parity will be reached, I'm told, is seven years from now. Just think of the impact that will have on electric utilities! Why would any of us continue to buy our power from them? We might use them as a giant storage battery and possibly for backup on cloudy days, but why would we use them at all for power if we can generate it cheaper at home? You can bet that's a question the electric power generating industry is asking itself. The whammy for the power companies is two-fold, because not only will power be cheaper but, by definition, the cost of building and installing solar panels will be substantially cheaper, too, than it is today. If it costs $40,000 on average to refit your house today, a lot of homeowners can't afford that, but what if it becomes $10,000? That's what worries electric companies that are used to having easier access to capital than do their customers. But once installing solar power costs relative chump change (the cost of a nice Ski-Doo or remodeling a bathroom), we'll see massive conversion and the power companies know that. So what can they do? They can find ways to get us to use more power than can possibly be generated from the roof of a typical American home. And that's why this week the Electric Power Research Institute proposed that we all get plug-in hybrid cars. It would save billions of barrels of oil, they say, lower greenhouse gas emissions, clean the air, oh and by the way require more electricity than your solar cells can produce, thanks. And it will work -- for a while. But Moore's Law is relentless, you know, and the role of electric utilities will change dramatically over the next decade as a result. As far as I can see, this is all for the better. But what does it have to do with Microsoft? Well that brings us to Windows Azure, which was still called Windows Cloud when I first mentioned it a couple weeks ago. Like all Microsoft strategies, Windows Azure is a reaction to external competitive pressures. And it is important, VERY important. Here's how a source of mine at Microsoft put it a few days ago, before the Azure announcement: "The cloud stuff isn't just another enterprise product. It is going to impact everything we do -- all of the product groups -- consumer and enterprise -- are going to have to figure out where they fit in to the cloud paradigm. The shift to cloud-based computing is analogous to our shift to the Internet in the late '90s. It changed the direction of the company and impacted everything we did." Wow, that's a big deal! Yet based on the Microsoft announcement this week, all Windows Azure looks like to me is Microsoft's effort to sell web services or maybe cut the sticker shock for smaller businesses adopting SQL Server. But more properly, it likely means Microsoft's acceptance that computing clients may eventually be free or nearly so. In short, Windows Azure is an insurance policy against the possible Vista-like failure of Windows 7. Last week, for example, I wrote about Microsoft's Windows Mobile technology, predicting that it would die simply because Redmond would realize that it could never be first or second in market share. That was no big scoop from me, though some news people took it as one -- it was just common sense. And so what happened this week? Well here's a report from a reader attending Microsoft's Professional Developer Conference, where Windows Azure and Windows 7 were introduced this week. "Windows Mobile has (a) near zero presence at MS PDC," wrote the reader. "Their Live Mesh platform has Windows Mobile as an integral component but otherwise no mention, no sessions. There was one session scheduled but it was cancelled at the last minute. Hmmm." When the body is under stress, it eventually sacrifices entire limbs to keep the internal organs working. Windows Mobile is just an appendage to Microsoft and always has been. Yet mobile is clearly the client of the future, so what's to be done? Windows Azure. Control the back end through industry standard -- even open source -- protocols. Make money from subscriptions and ads -- make money any and every way in the hope of leveraging a global infrastructure investment into a continuing business strategy. Can you see the connection here? There is almost no difference between Microsoft trying to become our computing utility and the electric company trying to power our next-generation cars. Both are coping strategies, both are risky, but neither Microsoft nor the electric utilities see that they have any real choice. And maybe they don't. For Microsoft, at least, it could be a strategy with legs. While the utilities will be undercut more and more by Moore's Law, Microsoft as a computing utility won't be. But that doesn't mean they'll be any good at the job. It means fighting a war on two fronts -- with Google as a provider of applications and with Apple as a provider of content. MAYBE Microsoft has a shot against Google, which is becoming more Microsoft-like itself by the day, but to compete with Apple as a content provider? Forget it. Microsoft simply isn't the class act it needs to be to dominate that space, so look for acquisitions to (maybe) fill that void. And all this means that Windows 7 had darned well better hit a home run or Microsoft is in BIG trouble. read less
Thu October 23 2008
I am not a very sophisticated mobile phone user. I don't use most of the bells and whistles on my phone, probably because I don't know what they even are. But just because I'm an idiot about USING mobile phones doesn't mean I don't understand the emerging mobile market, to which I have been paying a lot of attention of late. And why not? As personal computers fade from what Al Mandel called "ubiquity to invisibility," something has to take over. And everyone I respect thinks the new dominant platform will be mobile. So it's my job to tell you, then, that Windows Mobile is probably doomed. Interestingly, this conclusion isn't based on any personal preference or subjective analysis. I'm not saying that Windows Mobile is bad, just that it is probably doomed. It's a simple matter of market economics. There is generally room in any technology marketplace for three competing standards. Notice I say "standards," not "brands." There can be many brands of road vehicles, but they generally come down to cars, trucks, and motorcycles -- each a standard. In personal computers we have Windows, Macintosh, and Linux (or similar Unix workstation variant). In HVAC systems, just to stretch the point, there are radiant, forced air, or evaporative systems -- again three standards. And among those three standards there tends to be a market-share distribution that is more or less 85-10-5. These numbers can jump around a bit and one can argue that the Mac is now more than 10 percent of recent sales, though not of the installed PC base, so I hope you get my point. This magic 85-10-5 distribution also happens to mirror what happens at the racetrack or in the casino, where 85 percent of gamblers lose, 10 percent break-even, and 5 percent are winners, which explains all those big buildings in Las Vegas. The mobile phone marketplace shows a similar distribution, though that now appears to be in some transition. One could argue that the old 85-10-5 came down to basic or dumb phones (85), smartphones (10), and specialized or vertical phones like the old Nextel (5). Moore's Law now seems to be inexorably turning all phones into smartphones, so we're probably moving toward an 85-10-5 based on programming platform. Let's consider this smartphone migration for a moment, first with Samsung in mind. Last week Samsung announced that it would no longer be making high-end phones and would stick to basic phones in the future -- going for higher volumes at lower cost. This makes a lot of sense given that sophisticated phones must cost more to develop yet tend to be more expensive as a result and therefore have lower sales numbers. So why bother? This was the message Samsung sent out and everyone bought, but I really think that if you look at it in the context of a dynamic market the announcement means something else altogether. Deconstructing the Samsung announcement we'd have to wonder how the company sees itself and its competitors. That answer is pretty simple: Samsung sees itself as a global electronics company competing with outfits like Sony. Samsung has been for 40 years all about copying and eventually crushing Sony. Now given that's how Samsung sees itself (nobody I know contests this vision, by the way), how can the company possibly afford to let Nokia, Motorola, Sony, and Apple make high-end phones, which is to say smartphones, without Samsung competing in that space? That would be giving up a lifelong dream and Samsung just won't do it. So were they lying? No, Samsung wasn't lying, they were just doing what my old friend, PR man Martin Quigley, called "dissembling." Samsung probably has no intention of abandoning the smartphone market because ALL phones are becoming smartphones. What they truly intend to do, however, is make smartphones that are generally inexpensive, hoping to gain market share as a result. We'll see this trend from Apple, too, which will push iPhone prices down and introduce cheaper models next year and beyond. While there are many ways for Samsung to make smartphones less expensive, the easiest way to do so and yet remain competitive on features is by no longer using software that costs money. In the smartphone space there are, at present, only three operating systems that are being broadly licensed on an OEM basis -- Android, Symbian, and Windows Mobile. Of those three, two are free -- Android and Symbian. Symbian didn't used to be free but times change and now it is. So Samsung was announcing that it would be ending development of Windows Mobile devices at some point, though they never said that directly. Sticking with Samsung for a moment, then, which of the two free software platforms is the company likely to endorse? That's a good question. Symbian has a very strong presence in Japan, which is an important market for Samsung, so I don't see them abandoning Symbian immediately. But in the longer term I think Samsung WILL abandon Symbian, as will most of the rest of the world. Here's why (donning flameproof clothing): Symbian is simply too old. The OS is getting slower and slower with each release. The GUIs are getting uglier and are not user-friendly. The development environment is particularly bad, which wouldn't hurt if there weren't others that are so much better. Symbian C++, for example, is not a standard C++. There is little momentum in the Symbian developer community, maybe because coding for Symbian is a pain. Yes, there are way more Symbian phones in circulation, but those phones will be gone 18 months from now, probably replaced by phones with a different OS. Lately, Symbian's success has been primarily based on the high quality of Nokia hardware, on the loyalty of NTT DoCoMo, and now on the lure of being recently made open source and therefore free. But if open source developers don't flock now to Symbian (they aren't as far as I can see -- at least not yet) then the OS is doomed. My guess is that in time Samsung, like Motorola, will devote its smartphone development 100 percent to Android. Maybe, but what about Apple and RIM, what will happen there? This is not a time to bet against the iPhone, which is changing the entire landscape of not just smartphones but mobile phones in general. For all its teething problems, there is a new sheriff in town and his name is iPhone. We'll see nothing but progress and market-share gains there for at least another two product cycles or three years. RIM is another story altogether. What RIM has going for it are loyal users, good keyboards, and push mail. Most mobile phone users still think RIM is the only platform that has push mail. But given that push mail will soon be everywhere and the market will eventually figure that out, RIM is facing a huge challenge. I'm not saying they won't meet that challenge, I simply don't know. If I had to bet right this moment on the mobile 85-10-5 of 2011 I'd say iPhone, Android, then RIM, Symbian, or something completely new from behind Door Number Three. Why iPhone over Android? For exactly the same reason why the iPod holds that approximate 85 position among music players, including ones using open source software. iPhone has a really great SDK (light-years ahead of any other right now). The App Store distribution platform is great, but locked on too many points. This is a careful timing issue for Apple. If they open the APIs too quickly they risk being blocked. They need to open an API once they are perfectly sure it is the right one and the right way to export that function. Apple is going to relax the restrictions progressively when they better understand the use cases and what are the best APIs. In the meantime it is giving an advantage to Android, but one that I think a year from now Apple will have reclaimed. And where will Windows Mobile be in 2011? There way things are headed now, given that Microsoft can't really afford to be anything but first or second on the platform that supplants Windows, I'd say Windows Mobile will be dead. read less
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